When cleaning up my RSS Reader I came across this post by Om Malik from July 2006 where he quotes Reuben Steiger (Millions of Us) where he extrapolates the Second Life population to be 3.6 million by July 2007. While Om is a bit skeptic about the growth rate Reuben assumed (he was thinking about the back then current 22% while Om might maybe assume more around 10%) we now see that indeed he should have been skeptical but on the other hand 🙂
He states right though that “there are some problems with the math – it is taking a very short term trend and extrapolating it over an extended period of time, the kind of stuff which got Web 1.0 forecasters in trouble”. Indeed this was a problem looking at the current over 4 million residents 🙂
BTW, Fizik was expecting around 7 million people in SL at the end of this year at the SLDEVU in London, we will see what the counter says then (of course at some point it simply needs to slow down but if I look at individual countries such as Germany then there is still quite some grow to be expected (might be about 400.000 for Germany now IIRC).